The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) has released a new series of National Accounts with 2022-23 as the base year, replacing the 2011-12 series to better capture structural changes in the Indian economy. This comprehensive release includes the Second Advance Estimates (SAE) for FY 2025-26, which projects a Real GDP growth of 7.6%, reaching a level of ₹322.58 lakh crore.
The transition to the 2022-23 base year is designed to incorporate the latest data sources—such as the Annual Survey of Unincorporated Sector Enterprises (ASUSE) and the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS)—while improving estimation methodologies for the tertiary and secondary sectors.
By aligning with international best practices from the IMF’s Quarterly National Accounts Manual, the new series ensures higher granularity and accuracy in tracking India's post-COVID economic trajectory.
Part A: Second Advance Estimates (FY 2025-26) & Quarterly Series
This section covers current projections and the new quarterly benchmark from Q1 2022-23 to Q3 2025-26.
Annual Growth Projections (FY 2025-26): Real GDP growth is estimated at 7.6%, up from 7.1% in the previous year (FY 2024-25). Real Gross Value Added (GVA) is projected to grow at 7.7%.
Q3 FY 2025-26 Performance: Real GDP for the October-December 2025 quarter is estimated at ₹84.54 lakh crore, reflecting a Year-on-Year (Y-o-Y) growth rate of 7.8%.
Nominal Estimates: Nominal GDP for FY 2025-26 is projected at ₹345.47 lakh crore, indicating an 8.6% growth rate.
Sectoral GVA Composition: The Tertiary (Services) sector continues to dominate the sectoral composition, followed by the Secondary (Industry) and Primary (Agriculture/Mining) sectors.
Part B: Revised Annual Estimates (FY 2022-23 to FY 2024-25)
This section provides the re-benchmarked historical data used to bridge the old and new series.
FY 2024-25 (First Revised Estimates): Real GDP is pegged at ₹299.89 lakh crore with a growth rate of 7.1%.
FY 2023-24 (Second Revised Estimates): Real GDP level is established at ₹280.11 lakh crore with a growth rate of 8.3%.
Base Year Level (FY 2022-23): The absolute Real GDP for the new base year (2022-23) is set at ₹258.75 lakh crore.
Comparison Utility: These revised annual estimates and related aggregates allow for a consistent comparison of economic performance across the transition period, replacing all earlier estimates based on the 2011-12 series.
Part C: Methodological Improvements & Data Sources
This section outlines the systemic changes that define the 2022-23 GDP series.
Integration of ASUSE & PLFS: For the first time, direct estimates from the Annual Survey of Unincorporated Sector Enterprises (ASUSE) and PLFS are used for the quasi-corporate and household sectors, replacing older indicator-based extrapolations.
Expanded Corporate Coverage: Coverage of private Non-Banking Financial Corporations (NBFCs) has been expanded using comprehensive Ministry of Corporate Affairs (MCA) data.
Refined Deflation Strategy: The new series utilizes a more granular deflation strategy, employing a mix of CPI and WPI specific to sub-sectors rather than broad-based single deflation.
Improved Sectoral Estimation:
Agriculture: Includes additional crops and granular volume extrapolation for livestock and fisheries.
Construction: Updated rates and ratios based on the latest NSS surveys.
Public Administration: Estimates for States and Defence are now based on Actual Expenditure instead of Revised Estimates.
Policy Relevance: Macroeconomic Stability and Data Governance
Operationalizing Structural Accuracy: By selecting FY 2022-23—a "normal" post-COVID year—MoSPI is ensuring that the GDP series reflects the current structure of the Indian economy rather than an outdated 2011 framework.
Bypassing Indicator Lag: The shift to direct survey data (ASUSE/PLFS) acts as a primary tool to reduce reliance on "proxies" for the unorganised sector, providing a more truthful representation of rural and household economic activity.
Mechanical Link to Global Benchmarking: The adoption of the Proportional Denton method for benchmarking ensures that quarterly estimates remain aligned with annual totals, meeting the highest "Technical Fidelity" standards of the IMF.
Sovereign Fiscal Planning: The use of actual expenditure data for Defence and State Public Administration provides the Government with more precise fiscal indicators for budget planning under the Viksit Bharat agenda.
Follow the full data release here: MoSPI: New Series of GDP Estimates (Base Year 2022-23)
