Economists at the WTO and IMF have developed a new tool — the Trade Policy Activity (TPA) Index — to track how actively governments change trade rules over time. It combines information from the WTO Trade Monitoring Database and Global Trade Alert, covering many countries and products, to give a single, timely picture of global trade-policy shifts.
The index shows that for almost ten years, trade policies did not change much. But activity jumped sharply from 2019–2020, driven by COVID-19, US-China trade tensions, and geopolitical risks. During these periods, countries used trade policies for wider goals — such as industrial strategy, environmental priorities, or security concerns.
The TPA index also separates trade-facilitating measures (which make trade easier) from other measures (like restrictions, tariffs, and subsidies). It reveals that both kinds of actions spiked during crises, as governments tried to manage shortages and protect supply chains — for example in medical goods, food, and raw materials.
Because data is updated regularly — and big data tools may soon improve real-time “nowcasting” — the index could become an early-warning signal for policymakers, helping them anticipate global trade shifts before they fully take shape.
The development of the TPA index strengthens the transparency of trade-policy dynamics and enhances evidence-based monitoring — aligning with India’s trade-policy frameworks such as Atmanirbhar Bharat, Make in India, and the commitments under the WTO multilateral trading system. It also supports Indian policymakers in anticipating external policy shifts that might affect export competitiveness, supply-chain resilience and industrial strategy.
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